Jacinta Allan wants voters to see Victoria’s 12-year-old Labor government as ‘new and united’. Can she cling to power?

In her opening four-minute preamble to reporters, Allan - whose Labor government will in November seek an unprecedented fourth term - repeated the word 17 times. In one sentence alone, she referred to her “new cabinet”, “new portfolios”, “new solutions” and “new areas that are going to drive this government forward”.

It was followed only by her repetition of her government being a team (six times), united (four) and strong (twice).

While it’s politically clever to recast her long-serving government as renewed but steady at a time of global uncertainty (conditions that more often than not favour incumbents), it’s unclear whether the pitch will be enough to quell leadership rumblings from within, which disrupted the parliamentary sitting weeks in March.

The reshuffle followed the resignations of ministers Mary-Anne Thomas, Danny Pearson and Gayle Tierney, who all announced on Monday they would not contest the November election and would step down from cabinet immediately. They joined Natalie Hutchins, who moved to the backbench in December.

Their departures strip more than three decades of experience from the cabinet and leave it almost unrecognisable from the one sworn in alongside Daniel Andrews after the 2014 election. (Only Allan and Lily D’Ambrosio, the energy minister, remain).

The opposition leader, Jess Wilson, was quick to describe the departures as a “shuffle the deck chairs” on the Titanic but large-scale turnover before an election is hardly unprecedented.

Into the vacancies step four backbenchers: Frankston MP Paul Edbrooke, Kororoit MP Luba Grigorovitch, Box Hill MP Paul Hamer and Eureka MP Michaela Settle.

All four were elected unopposed by caucus on Tuesday after a weekend of factional negotiations. Grigorovitch – a former state secretary of the Rail, Tram and Bus Union – was the right faction’s pick, while the remaining three align with the left.

Privately, multiple Labor sources have raised concerns that Grigorovitch’s past support for the former CFMEU boss John Setka would be weaponised by the opposition, particularly after allegations of union corruption on government Big Build sites.

Their fears were only amplified after Grigorovitch’s first press conference as a minister on Tuesday, in which she told reporters she doesn’t “ditch her mates” and would still pick up Setka’s call – depending on what he wanted to discuss.

While the premier doesn’t determine who enters the cabinet, she does assign roles. It’s telling that she gave Grigorovitch the relatively junior portfolios, youth, carers and volunteers, compared to the other newcomers.

Settle, a former sheep farmer, takes on agriculture and regional development, while Hamer takes on the thorny portfolios of corrections, youth justice and local government.

Edbrooke received consumer affairs and three new portfolios that will see him play a key role in the lead-up to the election: cost of living, renters and “men and boys” – the latter aimed at addressing issues such as mental health, family violence and the growing influence of the manosphere.

The other major promotions went to MPs close to the premier, including Harriet Shing (health), Nick Staikos (housing and building and the Suburban Rail Loop), Ingrid Stitt (government services and special minister for state) and the treasurer, Jaclyn Symes, (development Victoria and precincts).

Sonya Kilkenny – who already has the hefty portfolios of attorney general and planning – adds violence reduction, a role she was largely already doing, and finance. The latter raised eyebrows within caucus, though MPs close to Kilkenny say she is entirely capable of the extra workload. (Others, including stakeholders, disagree.)

According to several Labor sources, Steve Dimopoulos told the premier he was keen to take on the assistant treasurer-like portfolio, but she only gave him economic growth and jobs.

For ministers in Labor’s right faction, it was a mixed bag. Enver Erdogan gained the environment and outdoor recreation portfolio from Dimopoulos, Anthony Carbines became the leader of the lower house, and Melissa Horne lost the roads and road safety portfolio but gained prevention of family violence.

Two MPs floated as Allan’s biggest leadership rivals, Ben Carroll and Gabrielle Williams, also received modest portfolio adjustments.

Labor MPs were mixed on the reshuffle, with one quipping that promotions within their party have “never been a meritocracy”.

Another conceded that it was “starting to get too late” for a leadership change, but the reshuffle didn’t mend the fractures. The MP pointed to a vote of the premier’s socialist left faction, in which Allan pushed for Mordialloc MP Tim Richardson to be elevated to the cabinet, but the grouping voted for Hamer instead.

“It might not mean much to punters, but within caucus, that was a blow to the premier,” they said.

Challenges also remain outside the cabinet room. Parliamentary secretary positions were yet to be finalised as of Friday. Candidates need to be chosen to replace Pearson and Thomas. And upper house preselections have been delayed to May, amid factional jostling over the top ballot positions – particularly if group voting tickets aren’t scrapped.

Another, more immediate, legislative headache is Wednesday’s high court judgment, scrapping the state’s election donations laws. The premier has said the government will expedite laws through parliament that will be retrospective – in the hope the threat will prevent a surge of unchecked donations.

There is also the fallout from the Geelong refinery fire that threatens to deepen the state’s fuel supply pressures, amid a war in Iran putting huge pressure on her budget.

These issues aren’t the premier’s making – but it all lands on her desk. She would be hoping the talk of “new solutions” and a united team is more than spin.

• Benita Kolovos is Guardian Australia’s Victorian state correspondent