Cortex AI Analítica
"Análisis de relevancia para la actualidad."
- The recent missteps ended with Iran saying it would reinstate a complete block on the movement of commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz and that it would not allow any of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be exported out of the country.
The recent missteps ended with Iran saying it would reinstate a complete block on the movement of commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz and that it would not allow any of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be exported out of the country.
The chain of events started when the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, posted on X on Friday soon after the markets opened in the US.
“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon the passage of all commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire [Lebanon ceasefire] on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep of Iran.”
His announcement knocked $12 off the price of a barrel of oil and was welcomed by Pakistan, which had been in Tehran for three days trying to find a way to address Iranian preconditions for holding talks with the US.
Araghchi’s post was potentially poorly framed or incomplete, and led to a big backlash, which was made worse by the fall in oil prices, and the news being welcomed and over-interpreted by Trump, who thanked Iran for opening the strait and agreeing to export its stockpile of uranium to the US.
Some on Iranian social media even claimed that Araghchi’s post was designed to manipulate the markets.
Iranian lawmaker Morteza Mahmoudi said if it wasn’t for wartime conditions, Araghchi should face impeachment over his remarks on X, accusing him of repeated “ill-timed” statements.
Within minutes, Tasnim, a news agency close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, described Araghchi’s post as either wrong or incomplete. It said the post was “published without the necessary and sufficient explanations, created various ambiguities regarding the conditions for passage, details and mechanisms of passage, and led to a great deal of criticism”.
Hardline press such as Kayhan was still demanding Araghchi withdraw his post when the newspaper hit the streets on Saturday.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Even those sympathetic to Araghchi inside Iran, like politician Mahmoud Sadeghi, said the announcement should have been made officially, and not through a post that could be open to misinterpretation.
The renewed impasse led to Trump threatening to restart bombing next week after the ceasefire between the two sides expires on Wednesday. It also sets up another potentially dangerous confrontation in the strait, which has so far avoided a direct naval confrontation between the US and Iran.
Iran also insisted it told mediators it was unwilling to restart talks with the US in Islamabad on Monday, as had been widely rumoured, because the demands by the US were excessive.
Iran’s tough approach reflects the dominance of the IRGC in determining Iranian foreign policy, as well as IRGC’s fears that Araghchi was making premature and unnecessary concessions to Washington.
IRGC resentment was compounded by a series of upbeat posts on Truth Social from Trump, which Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament and effectively leader of the Iranian negotiating team, said contained many lies.
Later it was stressed that Araghchi had meant the strait was open only to ships authorised by the IRGC Navy and using permitted designated routes after paying the required tolls.
The foreign ministry spokesperson underlined this point in an official interview, adding that no discussions had been had with the US about the future of Iran’s stockpile of uranium.
Ghalibaf’s post ostensibly attacking Trump stressed that whether the strait was open or closed would be determined by the military and not by social media posts.
Trump’s desperation for the war to end has seen him trying to speed through a process that he does not fully control, and which requires agreement from Tehran. Iran is still convinced that the strait remains its winning card and that time is on its side, so there is no rush for Iran to return to the talks.
Pakistan for its part is trying to put together a string of confidence-building measures, which started with Trump applying pressure on the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. That was supposed to start a chain of confidence-building events, including the opening of the strait and the possible release of a first tranche of frozen Iranian assets.
But Trump’s impatience led him to assume and pronounce too much, including continuing to insist that the blockade of Iran’s ports by the US Navy would continue.
With Tehran in a defiant mood, Trump’s reaffirmation of the blockade by Saturday morning had become reason enough for Iran to announce that even the conditional passage of ships was being ended only 24 hours after the process had started. Iran claimed it was already using threats to force back Indian oil tankers.
Warnings are also being issued by Tehran that it is close to relaunching missile attacks on Israel due to the breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
There is also the deeper problem that Iran believes it has a legal and moral right to seize control of the strait permanently.
Reza Nasri, an Iranian lawyer, warned on Saturday: “Under international law, an international strait earns its special status of ‘transit passage’ from its role as a neutral passage connecting two open seas or exclusive economic zones used for peaceful international navigation.
“When one side of this passage becomes a permanent military platform for the destruction of the opposing coastal state, that waterway no longer functions as a ‘normal’ international strait but rather becomes an extension of a hostile military zone.”
Galería de Imágenes
